XAU/USD Outlook

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

After summer highs of 4650.00, gold has retraced to the 4000.00 support level.

Economic Calendar Analysis



XAU/USD Weekly chart

XAU/USD  shows the price trading around 4000.00 after an extended corrective phase following its late-2025 peak near 5,600. The asset is currently testing a pivotal horizontal support floor at the 3950.00 – 4020.00 zone, which previously served as the multi-week consolidation base before the major breakout in late 2025 and provided an initial bounce in July 2026. The 26 SMA at 4281.05 is the prior support-turned-resistance level near 4400.00.

Weekly Chart


Commitments of Traders review

According to the U.S. CFTC ,COT reports for COMEX Gold futures across 2026, the Managed Money Net % Open Interest traded in a tight 22.47% to 27.57% band through late May, before a dramatic short-covering event on June 2 drove positioning up +6.84 percentage points in a single week to 34.41% as total open interest hit an annual low of 326,052 contracts. Bullish conviction peaked at a year-to-date high of 35.19% on August 4, after which persistent long liquidation trimmed institutional exposure back to 25.90% by the October 20 report, effectively returning net positioning to its baseline from early January (25.24%).

Commitments of Traders Chart

According to most recent gold flow summary by gold.org, Global gold exchange-traded funds achieved a historic third quarter in September 2026 by attracting $31 billion in total inflows, which elevated collective reserves to an unprecedented 4,256 tonnes. This massive accumulation was heavily spearheaded by North American and European markets, with United Kingdom funds setting a new regional milestone and briefly surpassing Chinese counterparts as the leading annual source of capital. Despite federal interest rate hikes and diminishing total assets under management due to lower bullion pricing. 

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