USD/JPY Outlook

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

Since the beginning of August, the FX pair has moved down towards 155.000, testing the 153.000 price zone.

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USD/JPY 4-Hour chart analysis

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY is staging a short-term corrective rebound from solid horizontal support at 153.50, with price now testing immediate resistance around 155.15–155.50. The 4H MACD confirms improving near-term momentum via an active bullish crossover (MACD line at -0.518 vs. signal at -0.789) and expanding positive green histogram bars (+0.272), indicating that buyers are attempting to push higher toward the descending trendline near 157.00. However, because the MACD remains below the zero line and the broader structure is defined by lower highs, this advance remains a relief rally; a failure to clear the 155.50 hurdle leaves the pair vulnerable to retesting 153.50, while a confirmed 4H close above 155.50 would open the path toward 156.80–157.00..

4-Hour Chart



USD/JPY remains locked in an intermediate daily downtrend after sliding from its mid-July 164.00 peak to print a local low near 153.50, but it is currently attempting a minor mean-reversion bounce around 155.10. While the MACD histogram shows decelerating bearish momentum, both MACD signal lines remain buried deep in negative territory, confirming sellers maintain broad control below the descending trendline and key horizontal resistance at 155.50–156.00. A daily close above 156.00 is required to confirm a legitimate counter-trend recovery toward the 158.00–160.00 supply zone, whereas a failure to hold current levels risks a continuation breakdown through 153.50 toward the 152.00 handle.


Daily chart




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